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North Carolina
ACC
15
@
TCU
Big 12
10
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN · Aviva Stadium · neutral site
Market spreadTCU -7.5
Market total46.5
Model spreadTCU -5.9
Edge-1.6

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TCU -5.9
market TCU -7.5  ·  edge -1.6  ·  UNC +3.5 vs TCU +9.4 (neutral)
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TCU -5.5
market TCU -7.5  ·  edge -2  ·  UNC +3.2 vs TCU +8.7 + 0 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 3 books. Positive edge = model likes TCU. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UNC+3.5—-0.3+3.2
TCU+9.4—-0.7+8.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 0 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UNC expected
20.3
1.9 pts/poss
TCU expected
26.2
2.4 pts/poss
Model total
46.6
market 46.5 · 21.9 poss, average pace
Edge
+0.1
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelTCU4487 mihurts TCU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.
travelNorth Carolina3605 mihurts UNC
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNCTCU
ATS overall1-00-1
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog1-0–
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road1-0–
Over / Under0O–1U0O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (TCU)Total
Bovada-7.5 46
Draft Kings-7.5 46.5
DraftKings-7.5 46.5

Best over 46 · best under 46.5. Latest snapshot Aug 29, 11:00 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TCU's side.

Line movement

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.