the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 3 books. Positive edge = model likes USC. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (USC) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -37 | 60.5 |
| Draft Kings | -37.5 | 61.5 |
| DraftKings | -37.5 | 61.5 |
Best USC number -37 · best SJSU number +37.5. Best over 60.5 · best under 61.5. Latest snapshot Aug 29, 2:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USC's side.
Line movement
- Aug 29, 2:00 PM · closeUSC -37 (-37.5–-35.5)o/u 61 (57.5–61.5)3 books
Prediction market · Kalshi
No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.
Weather
No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.