the yahngorithm
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NC State
ACC
8
@
Virginia
ACC
34
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN · Scott Stadium
Market spreadUVA -4
Market total50.5
Model spreadUVA -4.9
Edge+0.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UVA -4.9
market UVA -4  ·  edge +0.9  ·  NCSU +5.7 vs UVA +8.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UVA -4.3
market UVA -4  ·  edge +0.3  ·  NCSU +5.9 vs UVA +7.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 3 books. Positive edge = model likes Virginia. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
NCSU+5.7—+0.2+5.9
UVA+8.1—-0.6+7.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NCSU expected
23.4
2 pts/poss
UVA expected
28.3
2.4 pts/poss
Model total
51.8
market 50.5 · 23.6 poss, average pace
Edge
+1.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeVirginialost by 4helps UVA
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NCSUUVA
ATS overall0-12-0
ATS at home–2-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite–2-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (UVA)Total
Bovada-4 50.5
Draft Kings-4 50.5
DraftKings-4 50.5

Latest snapshot Aug 29, 2:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UVA's side.

Line movement

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.