the yahngorithm
← board
Jacksonville State
Conference USA
7
@
North Dakota State
Mountain West
33
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · CBSSN · Fargodome · indoor
Market spreadNDSU -7
Market total46.5
Model spreadNDSU -8.5
Edge+1.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel NDSU -8.5
market NDSU -7  ·  edge +1.5  ·  JXST -7.8 vs NDSU -1.8 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel NDSU -7.6
market NDSU -7  ·  edge +0.6  ·  JXST -7.5 vs NDSU -2.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 3 books. Positive edge = model likes North Dakota State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
JXST-7.8—+0.3-7.5
NDSU-1.8—-0.8-2.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

JXST expected
20.6
1.9 pts/poss
NDSU expected
29.1
2.7 pts/poss
Model total
49.8
market 46.5 · 21.6 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

JXSTNDSU
ATS overall2-1 67%2-1 67%
ATS at home1-01-1
ATS on the road1-11-0
ATS as favorite1-02-1 67%
ATS as underdog1-1–
ATS after a win1-01-1
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-21-0
Over / Under2O–1U1O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (NDSU)Total
Bovada-7 46.5
Draft Kings-6.5 46.5
DraftKings-6.5 46.5

Best NDSU number -6.5 · best JXST number +7. Latest snapshot Aug 29, 4:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from NDSU's side.

Line movement

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.