the yahngorithm
← board
Sacramento State
Mid-American
17
@
Eastern Michigan
Mid-American
28
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Rynearson Stadium
Market spreadEMU -8.5
Market total52.5
Model spreadEMU -9.8
Edge+1.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel EMU -9.8
market EMU -8.5  ·  edge +1.3  ·  SAC -23.4 vs EMU -16.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel EMU -9.9
market EMU -8.5  ·  edge +1.4  ·  SAC -22.4 vs EMU -15.2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 3 books. Positive edge = model likes Eastern Michigan. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
SAC-23.4—+1-22.4
EMU-16.1—+0.9-15.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

SAC expected
22.8
1.8 pts/poss
EMU expected
32.6
2.6 pts/poss
Model total
55.3
market 52.5 · 24.8 poss, average pace
Edge
+2.8
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelSacramento State1987 mi, 3hhurts SAC
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SACEMU
ATS overall1-2 33%1-2 33%
ATS at home1-01-1
ATS on the road0-20-1
ATS as favorite1-01-1
ATS as underdog0-20-1
ATS after a win0-10-1
ATS after a loss1-00-1
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road0-20-1
Over / Under1O–2U0O–3U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (EMU)Total
Bovada-9 53
Draft Kings-9.5 52.5
DraftKings-8.5 52.5

Best EMU number -8.5 · best SAC number +9.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 53. Latest snapshot Aug 29, 5:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from EMU's side.

Line movement

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.