the yahngorithm
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Hawai'i
Mountain West
27
@
Stanford
ACC
37
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ACC Network · Stanford Stadium
Market spreadSTAN -4.5
Market total48.5
Model spreadSTAN -2.8
Edge-1.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel STAN -2.8
market STAN -4.5  ·  edge -1.7  ·  HAW -2.6 vs STAN -2.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel STAN -2.7
market STAN -4.5  ·  edge -1.8  ·  HAW -2.5 vs STAN -2.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 3 books. Positive edge = model likes Stanford. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
HAW-2.6—+0.1-2.5
STAN-2.3—-0.2-2.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

HAW expected
24.8
2.1 pts/poss
STAN expected
27.6
2.3 pts/poss
Model total
52.4
market 48.5 · 23.9 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.9
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeStanfordlost by 3helps STAN
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.
travelHawai'i2399 mi, 3hhurts HAW
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

HAWSTAN
ATS overall1-2 33%1-1
ATS at home1-11-1
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite1-01-0
ATS as underdog0-20-1
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss1-1–
W–L at home1-11-1
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–2U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (STAN)Total
Bovada-5 48.5
Draft Kings-4.5 48.5
DraftKings-4.5 48.5

Best STAN number -4.5 · best HAW number +5. Latest snapshot Aug 29, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from STAN's side.

Line movement

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.