the yahngorithm
← board
New Mexico State
Conference USA
17
@
Florida State
ACC
34
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · CW · Doak Campbell Stadium
Market spreadFSU -30.5
Market total53.5
Model spreadFSU -30.1
Edge-0.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel FSU -30.1
market FSU -30.5  ·  edge -0.4  ·  NMSU -18.5 vs FSU +9.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel FSU -29.7
market FSU -30.5  ·  edge -0.8  ·  NMSU -18.5 vs FSU +8.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 3 books. Positive edge = model likes Florida State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
NMSU-18.5—0-18.5
FSU+9.1—-0.6+8.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NMSU expected
10.1
0.9 pts/poss
FSU expected
40.2
3.5 pts/poss
Model total
50.3
market 53.5 · 23.2 poss, average pace
Edge
-3.2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadFlorida Statethen SMUhurts FSU
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.
travelNew Mexico State1327 mi, 2hhurts NMSU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NMSUFSU
ATS overall2-1 67%0-1-1
ATS at home1-00-1-1
ATS on the road1-1–
ATS as favorite1-00-1
ATS as underdog1-10-0-1
ATS after a win0-10-0-1
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road0-2–
Over / Under1O–2U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (FSU)Total
Bovada-31 53.5
Draft Kings-30.5 53.5
DraftKings-31.5 53.5

Best FSU number -30.5 · best NMSU number +31.5. Latest snapshot Aug 29, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from FSU's side.

Line movement

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.