the yahngorithm
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Memphis
American Athletic
27
@
UNLV
Mountain West
21
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · FOX · Allegiant Stadium · indoor
Market spreadUNLV -4
Market total55.5
Model spreadUNLV -5.8
Edge+1.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UNLV -5.8
market UNLV -4  ·  edge +1.8  ·  MEM +0.3 vs UNLV +3.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UNLV -5.9
market UNLV -4  ·  edge +1.9  ·  MEM -0.2 vs UNLV +3.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 3 books. Positive edge = model likes UNLV. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
MEM+0.3—-0.5-0.2
UNLV+3.6—-0.5+3.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MEM expected
26.9
2.3 pts/poss
UNLV expected
32.7
2.8 pts/poss
Model total
59.6
market 55.5 · 23.5 poss, average pace
Edge
+4.1
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelMemphis1414 mi, -2hhurts MEM
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MEMUNLV
ATS overall2-1 67%1-2 33%
ATS at home1-00-1
ATS on the road1-11-1
ATS as favorite1-01-2 33%
ATS as underdog1-1–
ATS after a win1-10-1
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home1-00-1
W–L on the road1-11-1
Over / Under2O–1U0O–3U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (UNLV)Total
Bovada-5 55.5
Draft Kings-4.5 55.5
DraftKings-4 55.5

Best UNLV number -4 · best MEM number +5. Latest snapshot Aug 29, 9:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UNLV's side.

Line movement

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.