the yahngorithm

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Massachusetts

Mid-American

Rutgers

Big Ten

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · BTN · SHI Stadium

Market spreadRUTG -29

Market total54.5

Model spreadRUTG -38.1

Edge+9.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel RUTG -38.1

market RUTG -29 · edge +9.1 (home) · MASS -32.9 vs RUTG +2.7 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel RUTG -38.4

market RUTG -29 · edge +9.4 (home) · MASS -33 vs RUTG +2.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Rutgers. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

MASS-32.9—-0.1-33

RUTG+2.7—0+2.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MASS expected

0.6 pts/poss

RUTG expected

44.9

4.1 pts/poss

Model total

51.9

market 54.5 · 22.1 poss, average pace

Edge

-2.6

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MASSRUTG

ATS overall2-00-2

ATS at home1-00-1

ATS on the road1-00-1

ATS as favorite1-00-1

ATS as underdog1-00-1

ATS after a win1-0–

ATS after a loss–0-1

W–L at home1-00-1

W–L on the road1-00-1

Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (RUTG)	Total
betmgm	-29 -110	54.5 -108
betonlineag	-29 -112	54.5 -110
betrivers	-29.5 -112	54.5 -113
betus	-29 -110	54.5 -110
bovada	-29 -115	54.5 -115
draftkings	-29.5 -110	54.5 -108
fanduel	-29.5 -110	54.5 -110
lowvig	-29 -108	54.5 -108
mybookieag	–	54.5 -110

Best RUTG number -29 · best MASS number +29.5. Latest snapshot Sep 3, 4:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from RUTG's side.

Line movement

Sep 3, 4:30 PM · dailyRUTG -29 (-29.5–-29)o/u 54.59 books
Sep 3, 1:30 PM · dailyRUTG -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
Sep 3, 10:40 AM · dailyRUTG -29 (-30.5–-28.5)o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
Sep 3, 8:00 AM · dailyRUTG -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 52.5 (51.5–52.5)9 books
Sep 2, 11:00 PM · dailyRUTG -29 (-29.5–-29)o/u 52.5 (51.5–52.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 3, 4:00 PM83°F (feels 93°)wind 1.8 g8precip 3%
Sep 3, 6:01 AM82°F (feels 91°)wind 3.6 g11precip 5%
Sep 2, 12:59 PM81°F (feels 88°)wind 6 g16precip 12%

Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.