the yahngorithm

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UAlbany

Coastal Athletic · FCS

Buffalo

Mid-American

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · UB Stadium

Market spreadBUF -18.3

Market total47.5

Model spreadBUF -21.7

Edge+3.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel BUF -21.7

market BUF -18.3 · edge +3.4 (home) · UALB -31.9 vs BUF -12.7 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel BUF -21.4

market BUF -18.3 · edge +3.1 (home) · UALB -31.9 vs BUF -13.2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 6 books. Positive edge = model likes Buffalo. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

UALB-31.9——-31.9

BUF-12.7—-0.5-13.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UALB expected

12.7

1 pts/poss

BUF expected

34.4

2.8 pts/poss

Model total

47.1

market 47.5 · 24.8 poss, average pace

Edge

-0.4

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UALBBUF

ATS overall1-00-2

ATS at home–0-1

ATS on the road1-00-1

ATS as favorite–0-1

ATS as underdog1-00-1

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (BUF)	Total
betmgm	-18 -110	47.5 -110
betonlineag	-17.5 -115	47.5 -110
betrivers	-18.5 -109	48 -112
draftkings	-18.5 -110	47.5 -110
fanduel	-18.5 -110	47.5 -115
lowvig	-17.5 -115	47.5 -110
mybookieag	–	47.5 -110

Best BUF number -17.5 · best UALB number +18.5. Best over 47.5 · best under 48. Latest snapshot Sep 3, 4:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from BUF's side.

Line movement

Sep 3, 4:30 PM · dailyBUF -18.3 (-18.5–-17.5)o/u 47.5 (47.5–48)7 books
Sep 3, 1:30 PM · dailyBUF -18.3 (-18.5–-17.5)o/u 47.57 books
Sep 3, 10:43 AM · dailyBUF -17.5 (-18.5–-17.5)o/u 47.5 (47.5–48.5)7 books

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 3, 4:00 PM75°F (feels 83°)wind 3.5 g8precip 14%
Sep 3, 6:01 AM79°F (feels 83°)wind 3.6 g7precip 16%
Sep 2, 12:59 PM76°F (feels 81°)wind 6.7 g13precip 13%

Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.