the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Delaware. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (DEL) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -31.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -31.5 -120 | 55.5 -120 |
| betrivers | -31.5 -113 | 56.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -31.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 |
| fanduel | -31.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -31.5 -120 | 55.5 -120 |
| mybookieag | -31.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 |
Best over 55.5 · best under 56.5. Latest snapshot Sep 3, 4:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from DEL's side.
Line movement
- Sep 3, 4:30 PM · dailyDEL -31.5o/u 56.5 (55.5–56.5)7 books
- Sep 3, 1:30 PM · dailyDEL -31.5 (-31.5–-31)o/u 56.5 (55.5–56.5)7 books
- Sep 3, 10:40 AM · dailyDEL -31.5 (-31.5–-31)o/u 56.5 (55.5–56.5)7 books
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices DEL to win 99% — about DEL -31.4 vs the book's DEL -31.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 3, 7:07 PMDEL 98%989k vol
- Sep 3, 7:35 PMDEL 99%1151k vol
- Sep 3, 8:00 PMDEL 99%1158k vol
- Sep 3, 8:31 PMDEL 99%1164k vol
- Sep 3, 9:04 PMDEL 99%1165k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 3, 4:00 PM82°F (feels 90°)wind 4.8 g9precip 0%
- Sep 3, 6:01 AM84°F (feels 95°)wind 2.3 g5precip 11%
- Sep 2, 12:59 PM78°F (feels 86°)wind 3 g10precip 6%
Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.