the yahngorithm

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West Georgia

UAC · FCS

Kennesaw State

Conference USA

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Fifth Third Stadium

Market spreadKENN -21.5

Market total50.5

Model spreadKENN -24.8

Edge+3.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel KENN -24.8

market KENN -21.5 · edge +3.3 (home) · WGA -35.2 vs KENN -12.9 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel KENN -24.7

market KENN -21.5 · edge +3.2 (home) · WGA -35.3 vs KENN -13.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Kennesaw State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

WGA-35.2—-0.1-35.3

KENN-12.9—-0.4-13.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WGA expected

0.8 pts/poss

KENN expected

34.8

2.9 pts/poss

Model total

44.8

market 50.5 · 23.6 poss, average pace

Edge

-5.7

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WGAKENN

ATS overall0-21-1

ATS at home–1-1

ATS on the road0-2–

ATS as favorite–1-1

ATS as underdog0-2–

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss0-1–

W–L at home–1-1

W–L on the road0-2–

Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (KENN)	Total
betmgm	-21.5 -108	50.5 -105
betonlineag	-21.5 -110	49.5 -110
betrivers	-21.5 -112	50.5 -114
draftkings	-22.5 -112	50.5 -110
fanduel	-21.5 -110	50.5 -110
lowvig	-21.5 -110	49.5 -110
mybookieag	-21.5 -110	50.5 -110

Best KENN number -21.5 · best WGA number +22.5. Best over 49.5 · best under 50.5. Latest snapshot Sep 3, 4:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from KENN's side.

Line movement

Sep 3, 4:30 PM · dailyKENN -21.5 (-22.5–-21.5)o/u 50.5 (49.5–50.5)7 books
Sep 3, 1:30 PM · dailyKENN -21.5 (-22.5–-21.5)o/u 50.57 books
Sep 3, 10:40 AM · dailyKENN -21.5 (-22.5–-21)o/u 50.57 books

Prediction market · Kalshi

WGA1%

KENN99%▲ 4.9

Implied lineKENN -31.4

Volume369k

Open interest286k

Traded 24h317k

Kalshi's market prices KENN to win 99% — about KENN -31.4 vs the book's KENN -21.5. 9.9-pt gap — the market rates KENN higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 3, 8:31 PMKENN 99%359k vol
Sep 3, 9:04 PMKENN 99%362k vol
Sep 3, 9:33 PMKENN 99%366k vol
Sep 3, 10:03 PMKENN 99%369k vol
Sep 3, 10:37 PMKENN 99%369k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 3, 4:00 PM91°F (feels 96°)wind 6.5 g13precip 3%
Sep 3, 6:01 AM95°F (feels 96°)wind 6.7 g9precip 6%
Sep 2, 12:59 PM96°F (feels 97°)wind 5.4 g9precip 2%

Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.