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Akron
Mid-American
16
@
Wake Forest
ACC
38
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ACC Network · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Market spreadWAKE -27
Market total50.5
Model spreadWAKE -28.8
Edge+1.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel WAKE -28.8
market WAKE -27  ·  edge +1.8  ·  AKR -22.9 vs WAKE +3.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel WAKE -27.3
market WAKE -27  ·  edge +0.3  ·  AKR -21.8 vs WAKE +2.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Wake Forest. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
AKR-22.9—+1.1-21.8
WAKE+3.4—-0.6+2.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

AKR expected
10.6
0.8 pts/poss
WAKE expected
39.4
3 pts/poss
Model total
50
market 50.5 · 25.8 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.5
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamWake Forest2 pts in 2.7hhelps WAKE
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

AKRWAKE
ATS overall2-00-2
ATS at home1-00-1
ATS on the road1-00-1
ATS as favorite1-00-2
ATS as underdog1-0–
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under2O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (WAKE)Total
betmgm-27 -11050.5 -108
betonlineag-27 -11050.5 -105
betrivers-27 -11050.5 -112
betus-27 -11050.5 -105
bovada-27 -11050.5 -105
draftkings-26.5 -11850.5 -110
fanduel-27.5 -10850.5 -118
lowvig-27 -10650.5 -103
mybookieag-27 -11050.5 -110

Best WAKE number -26.5 · best AKR number +27.5. Latest snapshot Sep 3, 4:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WAKE's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 11.

Prediction market · Kalshi

AKR1%
WAKE99%▲ 4
Implied lineWAKE -31.4
Volume946k
Open interest838k
Traded 24h869k

Kalshi's market prices WAKE to win 99% — about WAKE -31.4 vs the book's WAKE -27. 4.4-pt gap — the market rates WAKE higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.