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Arkansas-Pine Bluff

SWAC · FCS

25Missouri

SEC

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · SEC Network · Memorial Stadium

Market spreadMIZ -55.5

Market total61.5

Model spreadMIZ -66.9

Edge+11.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MIZ -66.9

market MIZ -55.5 · edge +11.4 (home) · UAPB -49 vs MIZ +15.4 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MIZ -66.9

market MIZ -55.5 · edge +11.4 (home) · UAPB -49 vs MIZ +15.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Missouri. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

UAPB-49—0-49

MIZ+15.4—-0.3+15.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UAPB expected

0.6 pts/poss

MIZ expected

42.2

3.6 pts/poss

Model total

49.2

market 61.5 · 23.2 poss, average pace

Edge

-12.3

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UAPBMIZ

ATS overall1-01-1

ATS at home–0-1

ATS on the road1-01-0

ATS as favorite–1-1

ATS as underdog1-0–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-11-0

Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (MIZ)	Total
betmgm	-55.5 -110	61.5 -108
betonlineag	-55.5 -105	62.5 -115
betrivers	-55.5 -112	62 -114
draftkings	-55.5 -118	61.5 -120
fanduel	-55.5 -112	61.5 -115
lowvig	-55.5 -105	62.5 -115
mybookieag	-54.5 -110	61.5 -110

Best MIZ number -54.5 · best UAPB number +55.5. Best over 61.5 · best under 62.5. Latest snapshot Sep 3, 4:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MIZ's side.

Line movement

Sep 3, 4:30 PM · dailyMIZ -55.5 (-55.5–-54.5)o/u 61.5 (61.5–62.5)7 books
Sep 3, 1:30 PM · dailyMIZ -55.5 (-56–-54.5)o/u 61.5 (61.5–62.5)7 books
Sep 3, 10:43 AM · dailyMIZ -55 (-56–-54.5)o/u 61.5 (60.5–62)7 books

Prediction market · Kalshi

UAPB1%

MIZ99%

Implied lineMIZ -31.4

Volume1480k

Open interest1444k

Traded 24h1234k

Kalshi's market prices MIZ to win 99% — about MIZ -31.4 vs the book's MIZ -55.5. 24.1-pt gap — the market rates UAPB higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 3, 8:00 PMMIZ 99%1468k vol
Sep 3, 8:31 PMMIZ 99%1473k vol
Sep 3, 9:04 PMMIZ 99%1477k vol
Sep 3, 9:33 PMMIZ 99%1478k vol
Sep 3, 10:03 PMMIZ 99%1480k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 3, 4:00 PM89°F (feels 94°)wind 6.2 g10precip 0%
Sep 3, 6:01 AM92°F (feels 96°)wind 4.4 g5precip 0%
Sep 2, 12:59 PM93°F (feels 96°)wind 5.2 g8precip 0%

Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.