the yahngorithm
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Colorado
Big 12
14
@
Georgia Tech
ACC
13
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN · Bobby Dodd Stadium
Market spreadGT -6.5
Market total51.5
Model spreadGT -7.7
Edge+1.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel GT -7.7
market GT -6.5  ·  edge +1.2  ·  COLO +0.7 vs GT +5.9 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel GT -7.5
market GT -6.5  ·  edge +1  ·  COLO +0.7 vs GT +5.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Georgia Tech. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
COLO+0.7——+0.7
GT+5.9—-0.4+5.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

COLO expected
21.6
1.9 pts/poss
GT expected
29.3
2.6 pts/poss
Model total
50.8
market 51.5 · 22.9 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.7
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelColorado1228 mi, 2hhurts COLO
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.
revengeColoradolost by 7helps COLO
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

COLOGT
ATS overall1-10-2
ATS at home0-10-2
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite0-10-1
ATS as underdog1-00-1
ATS after a win0-1–
ATS after a loss–0-1
W–L at home1-00-2
W–L on the road1-0–
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (GT)Total
betmgm-6.5 -10851.5 -110
betonlineag-6.5 -10751.5 -115
betrivers-6.5 -11051.5 -108
betus-6.5 -10551.5 -110
bovada-6.5 -11552 -110
draftkings-6.5 -10851.5 -110
fanduel-6.5 -11051.5 -112
lowvig-6.5 -10351.5 -114
mybookieag-6.5 -11051.5 -110

Best over 51.5 · best under 52. Latest snapshot Sep 3, 4:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from GT's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 11.

Prediction market · Kalshi

COLO35%
GT65%▼ 4.3
Implied lineGT -5.2
Volume17329k
Open interest8462k
Traded 24h15888k

Kalshi's market prices GT to win 65% — about GT -5.2 vs the book's GT -6.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.