the yahngorithm

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Idaho

Big Sky · FCS

21Utah

Big 12

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPNU · Rice-Eccles Stadium

Market spreadUTAH -37.5

Market total60.3

Model spreadUTAH -39.5

Edge+2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UTAH -39.5

market UTAH -37.5 · edge +2 · IDHO -27.2 vs UTAH +9.8 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UTAH -39.9

market UTAH -37.5 · edge +2.4 · IDHO -27.3 vs UTAH +9.6 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 5 books. Positive edge = model likes Utah. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

IDHO-27.2—-0.1-27.3

UTAH+9.8—-0.2+9.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

IDHO expected

9.3

0.8 pts/poss

UTAH expected

48.8

4.3 pts/poss

Model total

58.2

market 60.3 · 22.9 poss, average pace

Edge

-2.1

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

IDHOUTAH

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–2-0

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite–2-0

ATS as underdog0-1–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (UTAH)	Total
betmgm	-37.5 -110	60.5 -108
betonlineag	-38 -118	60.5 -115
betrivers	-37.5 -112	60 -110
draftkings	-37.5 -112	60.5 -110
fanduel	-37.5 -110	59.5 -114
mybookieag	–	60 -110

Best UTAH number -37.5 · best IDHO number +38. Best over 59.5 · best under 60.5. Latest snapshot Sep 3, 7:35 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UTAH's side.

Line movement

Sep 3, 7:35 PM · dailyUTAH -37.5 (-38–-37.5)o/u 60.3 (59.5–60.5)6 books
Sep 3, 4:30 PM · dailyUTAH -37 (-37.5–-36.5)o/u 59.3 (58.5–60)6 books
Sep 3, 1:30 PM · dailyUTAH -36.5 (-37–-36.5)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)6 books
Sep 3, 10:40 AM · dailyUTAH -35.5 (-36–-35.5)o/u 58.8 (58.5–59.5)6 books

Prediction market · Kalshi

IDHO1%

UTAH99%

Implied lineUTAH -31.4

Volume2808k

Open interest2183k

Traded 24h2519k

Kalshi's market prices UTAH to win 99% — about UTAH -31.4 vs the book's UTAH -37.5. 6.1-pt gap — the market rates IDHO higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 3, 9:04 PMUTAH 99%2411k vol
Sep 3, 9:33 PMUTAH 99%2780k vol
Sep 3, 10:03 PMUTAH 99%2795k vol
Sep 3, 10:37 PMUTAH 99%2802k vol
Sep 3, 11:07 PMUTAH 99%2808k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 3, 4:00 PM83°F (feels 73°)wind 11.7 g24precip 0%
Sep 3, 6:01 AM83°F (feels 71°)wind 16.2 g28precip 1%
Sep 2, 12:59 PM83°F (feels 69°)wind 19.6 g33precip 1%

Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.