the yahngorithm
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UAB
American Athletic
23
@
Illinois
Big Ten
42
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · BTN · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Market spreadILL -25.5
Market total54.5
Model spreadILL -30.4
Edge+4.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ILL -30.4
market ILL -25.5  ·  edge +4.9 (home)  ·  UAB -17.5 vs ILL +10.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ILL -28.5
market ILL -25.5  ·  edge +3 (home)  ·  UAB -16.4 vs ILL +9.4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Illinois. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UAB-17.5—+1.1-16.4
ILL+10.4—-1+9.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UAB expected
10.4
1 pts/poss
ILL expected
40.8
3.9 pts/poss
Model total
51.2
market 54.5 · 21.1 poss, average pace
Edge
-3.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamUAB1.5 pts in 3.1hhelps UAB
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UABILL
ATS overall1-10-2
ATS at home0-10-2
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite0-10-2
ATS as underdog1-0–
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–1U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ILL)Total
betmgm-25.5 -10854.5 -105
betonlineag-25 -11554 -115
betrivers-25.5 -11253.5 -113
betus-25 -11054 -110
bovada-25.5 -11054.5 +100
draftkings-25.5 -10854.5 -108
fanduel-25.5 -11054.5 -110
lowvig-25 -11154 -114
mybookieag-25 -11054.5 -110

Best ILL number -25 · best UAB number +25.5. Best over 53.5 · best under 54.5. Latest snapshot Sep 3, 7:35 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ILL's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 12.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UAB1%
ILL99%▲ 2
Implied lineILL -31.4
Volume3302k
Open interest2355k
Traded 24h3227k

Kalshi's market prices ILL to win 99% — about ILL -31.4 vs the book's ILL -25.5. 5.9-pt gap — the market rates ILL higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.