the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Eastern Michigan. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (EMU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -1.5 -108 | 54.5 -118 |
| betonlineag | -1 -110 | 55 -110 |
| betrivers | -1 -110 | 55.5 -109 |
| betus | -1 -110 | 55 -110 |
| bovada | -1.5 -105 | 55 -105 |
| draftkings | -1.5 -108 | 55.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -1.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 |
| lowvig | -1 -106 | 55 -108 |
| mybookieag | -1.5 -110 | 55 -110 |
Best EMU number -1 · best SJSU number +1.5. Best over 54.5 · best under 55.5. Latest snapshot Sep 4, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from EMU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyEMU -1.5 (-1.5–-1)o/u 55 (54.5–55.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 2:00 PM · dailyEMU -2.5o/u 55 (54.5–55.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 11:01 AM · dailyEMU -2.5 (-3–-2.5)o/u 56 (55.5–56.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 AM · dailyEMU -3 (-3–-2.5)o/u 56 (55.5–56.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 1:37 AM · dailyEMU -3 (-3–-2.5)o/u 56 (55.5–56.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM77°F (feels 83°)wind 5.4 g12precip 6%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM80°F (feels 87°)wind 2 g7precip 10%
- Sep 3, 4:00 PM82°F (feels 91°)wind 1.5 g9precip 13%
Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.