the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Georgia State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (GAST) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -28.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -29 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| betrivers | -28.5 -108 | 58.5 -109 |
| bovada | -29.5 -110 | 62 -110 |
| draftkings | -28.5 -110 | 58.5 -118 |
| fanduel | -28.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 |
| lowvig | -29 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| mybookieag | -28.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 |
Best GAST number -28.5 · best NCAT number +29.5. Best over 58.5 · best under 62. Latest snapshot Sep 4, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from GAST's side.
Line movement
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyGAST -28.5 (-29–-28.5)o/u 58.57 books
- Sep 4, 2:00 PM · dailyGAST -28.5 (-30–-28.5)o/u 58.5 (58–58.5)6 books
- Sep 4, 11:01 AM · dailyGAST -28.5 (-30–-28)o/u 58.5 (58–59)6 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 AM · dailyGAST -28.5 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 62 (61.5–62.5)6 books
- Sep 4, 1:37 AM · dailyGAST -28.5 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 62.5 (62–62.5)5 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 10.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices GAST to win 99% — about GAST -31.4 vs the book's GAST -28.5. 2.9-pt gap — the market rates GAST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 4, 7:01 PMGAST 99%1288k vol
- Sep 4, 7:30 PMGAST 99%1313k vol
- Sep 4, 8:00 PMGAST 99%1317k vol
- Sep 4, 8:30 PMGAST 99%1318k vol
- Sep 4, 9:00 PMGAST 99%1319k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM94°F (feels 97°)wind 5.6 g9precip 0%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM94°F (feels 97°)wind 5.9 g8precip 0%
- Sep 3, 4:00 PM94°F (feels 95°)wind 7.9 g12precip 1%
Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.