the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Purdue. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (PUR) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -35 -102 | 56.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -35 -115 | 55.5 -125 |
| betrivers | -35.5 -109 | 56.5 -109 |
| bovada | -35.5 -110 | 56 -115 |
| draftkings | -34.5 -120 | 55.5 -115 |
| fanduel | -35.5 -102 | 56.5 -108 |
| lowvig | -35 -115 | 55.5 -125 |
| mybookieag | -35 -110 | 56 -110 |
Best PUR number -34.5 · best INST number +35.5. Best over 55.5 · best under 56.5. Latest snapshot Sep 4, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from PUR's side.
Line movement
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyPUR -35 (-35.5–-34.5)o/u 56 (55.5–56.5)7 books
- Sep 4, 2:00 PM · dailyPUR -35.5 (-35.5–-34.5)o/u 55.8 (55.5–56.5)6 books
- Sep 4, 11:01 AM · dailyPUR -35.5 (-35.5–-34.5)o/u 55.8 (55.5–56.5)6 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 AM · dailyPUR -35.5 (-36–-35.5)o/u 56 (55.5–56.5)6 books
- Sep 4, 1:37 AM · dailyPUR -35.5 (-36.5–-35.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56.5)5 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 10.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices PUR to win 99% — about PUR -31.4 vs the book's PUR -35. 3.6-pt gap — the market rates INST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 4, 7:01 PMPUR 97%7769k vol
- Sep 4, 7:30 PMPUR 97%9037k vol
- Sep 4, 8:00 PMPUR 99%9547k vol
- Sep 4, 8:30 PMPUR 99%9583k vol
- Sep 4, 9:00 PMPUR 99%9596k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM91°F (feels 98°)wind 5.2 g10precip 1%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM90°F (feels 97°)wind 6.4 g14precip 1%
- Sep 3, 4:00 PM91°F (feels 99°)wind 5.4 g11precip 1%
Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.