the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Oklahoma. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (OU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -41.5 -112 | 51.5 -112 |
| betonlineag | -41 -113 | 51 -111 |
| betrivers | -41 -113 | 51 -112 |
| betus | -41 -110 | 51 -110 |
| bovada | -41 -115 | 50 -120 |
| draftkings | -40.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 |
| fanduel | -40.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 |
| lowvig | -41 -109 | 51 -109 |
| mybookieag | -41 -110 | 51 -110 |
Best OU number -40.5 · best UTEP number +41.5. Best over 50 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 4, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from OU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyOU -41 (-41.5–-40.5)o/u 51 (50–51.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 2:00 PM · dailyOU -41 (-41.5–-40.5)o/u 51 (50–51.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 11:01 AM · dailyOU -41 (-41.5–-40.5)o/u 51.5 (51–51.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 AM · dailyOU -41.5 (-41.5–-40.5)o/u 51.5 (51–51.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 1:37 AM · dailyOU -41 (-41.5–-40.5)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices OU to win 99% — about OU -31.4 vs the book's OU -41. 9.6-pt gap — the market rates UTEP higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 4, 8:00 PMOU 99%2506k vol
- Sep 4, 8:30 PMOU 99%2524k vol
- Sep 4, 9:00 PMOU 99%2537k vol
- Sep 4, 9:30 PMOU 99%2540k vol
- Sep 4, 10:00 PMOU 99%2547k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM95°Fwind 12.7 g19precip 0%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM96°F (feels 95°)wind 12.6 g19precip 0%
- Sep 3, 4:00 PM94°Fwind 12.6 g18precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.