the yahngorithm

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Toledo

Mid-American

Michigan State

Big Ten

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · FS1 · Spartan Stadium

Market spreadMSU -10

Market total48.5

Model spreadMSU -13.8

Edge+3.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MSU -13.8

market MSU -10 · edge +3.8 (home) · TOL -9.1 vs MSU +2.2 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MSU -13

market MSU -10 · edge +3 (home) · TOL -8.9 vs MSU +1.4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Michigan State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

TOL-9.1—+0.2-8.9

MSU+2.2—-0.8+1.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

TOL expected

18.3

1.5 pts/poss

MSU expected

32.1

2.7 pts/poss

Model total

50.4

market 48.5 · 24 poss, average pace

Edge

+1.9

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

TOLMSU

ATS overall1-0-11-0-1

ATS at home1-01-0-1

ATS on the road0-0-1–

ATS as favorite1-01-0-1

ATS as underdog0-0-1–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home1-02-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (MSU)	Total
betmgm	-10 -110	48.5 -108
betonlineag	-9.5 -115	48.5 -110
betrivers	-10 -113	48.5 -112
betus	-10 -110	48.5 -110
bovada	-10.5 -105	48.5 -110
draftkings	-10 -112	48.5 -110
fanduel	-9.5 -120	48.5 -104
lowvig	-10 -110	48.5 -108
mybookieag	-10 -110	48.5 -110

Best MSU number -9.5 · best TOL number +10.5. Latest snapshot Sep 4, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MSU's side.

Line movement

Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyMSU -10 (-10.5–-9.5)o/u 48.59 books
Sep 4, 2:00 PM · dailyMSU -10 (-10.5–-9.5)o/u 48 (47.5–48.5)9 books
Sep 4, 11:01 AM · dailyMSU -10.5 (-10.5–-10)o/u 47.5 (47–48.5)9 books
Sep 4, 8:00 AM · dailyMSU -10.5 (-10.5–-10)o/u 46.59 books
Sep 4, 1:37 AM · dailyMSU -10 (-10.5–-10)o/u 46.5 (46.5–47)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

TOL8%

MSU92%▲ 14.8

Implied lineMSU -19

Volume5069k

Open interest3213k

Traded 24h4284k

Kalshi's market prices MSU to win 92% — about MSU -19 vs the book's MSU -10. 9.0-pt gap — the market rates MSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 4, 8:00 PMMSU 93%1066k vol
Sep 4, 8:30 PMMSU 94%1391k vol
Sep 4, 9:00 PMMSU 96%1535k vol
Sep 4, 9:30 PMMSU 86%2573k vol
Sep 4, 10:00 PMMSU 92%5069k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 4, 4:01 PM74°F (feels 81°)wind 0.4 g3precip 5%
Sep 4, 6:01 AM76°F (feels 82°)wind 4.8 g8precip 8%
Sep 3, 4:00 PM78°F (feels 86°)wind 4.5 g8precip 15%

Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.