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Fresno State
Pac-12
0
@
14USC
Big Ten
39
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · FOX · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Market spreadUSC -22.5
Market total51.5
Model spreadUSC -21.6
Edge-0.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel USC -21.6
market USC -22.5  ·  edge -0.9  ·  FRES -1.4 vs USC +17.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel USC -21.9
market USC -22.5  ·  edge -0.6  ·  FRES -1.6 vs USC +17.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes USC. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
FRES-1.4—-0.2-1.6
USC+17.7—-0.1+17.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

FRES expected
14.1
1.2 pts/poss
USC expected
35.7
3.1 pts/poss
Model total
49.8
market 51.5 · 22.8 poss, average pace
Edge
-1.7
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

FRESUSC
ATS overall1-11-2 33%
ATS at home1-01-2 33%
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite1-01-2 33%
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–1-1
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-03-0 100%
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–1U2O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (USC)Total
betmgm-22 -11851.5 -105
betonlineag-22.5 -11851.5 -117
betrivers-21.5 -11251.5 -114
betus-22.5 -11051.5 -110
bovada-22.5 -11551 -110
draftkings-22.5 -10851.5 -112
fanduel-21.5 -11851.5 -115
lowvig-22.5 -10651.5 -110
mybookieag-22 -11051 -110

Best USC number -21.5 · best FRES number +22.5. Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 4, 8:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USC's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.

Prediction market · Kalshi

FRES1%
USC99%▲ 5.9
Implied lineUSC -31.4
Volume2555k
Open interest1986k
Traded 24h2203k

Kalshi's market prices USC to win 99% — about USC -31.4 vs the book's USC -22.5. 8.9-pt gap — the market rates USC higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.