the yahngorithm
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7Miami
ACC
45
@
Stanford
ACC
6
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN · Stanford Stadium
Market spreadMIA -24.5
Market total46.5
Model spreadMIA -21.8
Edge+2.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MIA -21.8
market MIA -24.5  ·  edge +2.7 (home)  ·  MIA +22 vs STAN -2.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MIA -21.3
market MIA -24.5  ·  edge +3.2 (home)  ·  MIA +21.5 vs STAN -2.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Stanford. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
MIA+22—-0.5+21.5
STAN-2.3—-0.2-2.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MIA expected
34.3
3 pts/poss
STAN expected
12.5
1.1 pts/poss
Model total
46.8
market 46.5 · 22.9 poss, average pace
Edge
+0.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelMiami2565 mi, -3hhurts MIA
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MIASTAN
ATS overall2-01-1
ATS at home1-01-1
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite2-01-0
ATS as underdog–0-1
ATS after a win1-00-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road1-0–
Over / Under2O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (STAN)Total
betmgm+24.5 -11046.5 -108
betonlineag+24.5 -10546 -113
betrivers+25 -11347 -114
betus+24.5 -10546.5 -110
bovada+24.5 -11046.5 -110
draftkings+24.5 -11246.5 -110
fanduel+24.5 -11246.5 -110
lowvig+24.5 -10146 -112
mybookieag+24.5 -11046.5 -110

Best STAN number +25 · best MIA number -24.5. Best over 46 · best under 47. Latest snapshot Sep 4, 8:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from STAN's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MIA99%
STAN1%▼ 5.9
Implied lineMIA -31.4
Volume4911k
Open interest4106k
Traded 24h4639k

Kalshi's market prices STAN to win 1% — about MIA -31.4 vs the book's MIA -24.5. 6.9-pt gap — the market rates MIA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.