the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Houston. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (HOU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -21 -108 | 50.5 -112 |
| betonlineag | -21 -110 | 50.5 -119 |
| betrivers | -21 -113 | 50 -114 |
| betus | -21 -105 | 51 -110 |
| bovada | -21 -105 | 51 -105 |
| draftkings | -21 -108 | 50.5 -115 |
| fanduel | -20.5 -118 | 50.5 -114 |
| lowvig | -21 -106 | 50.5 -118 |
| mybookieag | -21 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
Best HOU number -20.5 · best ORST number +21. Best over 50 · best under 51. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:00 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from HOU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyHOU -21 (-21–-20.5)o/u 50.5 (50–51)9 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyHOU -21 (-21–-20.5)o/u 50.5 (50–51)9 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyHOU -21 (-21–-20.5)o/u 50.5 (50–51)9 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyHOU -21 (-21–-20.5)o/u 50.5 (50–51)9 books
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyHOU -21 (-21–-20.5)o/u 50.5 (50–51)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices HOU to win 99% — about HOU -31.4 vs the book's HOU -21. 10.4-pt gap — the market rates HOU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 1:01 PMHOU 97%2181k vol
- Sep 5, 1:31 PMHOU 96%2317k vol
- Sep 5, 2:00 PMHOU 99%2599k vol
- Sep 5, 2:31 PMHOU 88%3100k vol
- Sep 5, 3:01 PMHOU 99%4165k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM90°F (feels 100°)wind 1.6 g2precip 6%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM89°F (feels 99°)wind 5 g6precip 14%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM89°F (feels 97°)wind 4.6 g5precip 12%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.