the yahngorithm

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New Hampshire

Coastal Athletic · FCS

Syracuse

ACC

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ACC Network · JMA Wireless Dome · indoor

Market spreadSYR -35.5

Market total55.8

Model spreadSYR -32.3

Edge-3.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel SYR -32.3

market SYR -35.5 · edge -3.2 (away) · UNH -31.7 vs SYR -1.9 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel SYR -32.8

market SYR -35.5 · edge -2.7 (away) · UNH -31.8 vs SYR -1.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Syracuse. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

UNH-31.7—-0.1-31.8

SYR-1.9—+0.2-1.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UNH expected

8.2

0.7 pts/poss

SYR expected

40.5

3.4 pts/poss

Model total

48.7

market 55.8 · 24.1 poss, average pace

Edge

-7.1

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNHSYR

ATS overall0-11-1

ATS at home–1-1

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite–1-1

ATS as underdog0-1–

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-1

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (SYR)	Total
betmgm	-36.5 -108	56.5 -118
betonlineag	-36.5 -120	57.5 -120
betrivers	-35.5 -112	56.5 -109
bovada	-35.5 -110	56.5 -110
draftkings	-35.5 -110	56.5 -108
fanduel	-35.5 -104	56.5 -108
mybookieag	-35.5 -110	56.5 -110

Best SYR number -35.5 · best UNH number +36.5. Best over 56.5 · best under 57.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:00 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SYR's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailySYR -35.5 (-36.5–-35)o/u 55.8 (55.5–57.5)7 books
Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailySYR -35.5 (-36.5–-35)o/u 55.5 (55–56.5)7 books
Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailySYR -34.5o/u 55.3 (55–56)6 books
Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailySYR -34.5o/u 55.3 (55–56)6 books
Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailySYR -34.5 (-34.5–-34)o/u 55.5 (55–55.5)5 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 14.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UNH1%

SYR99%▲ 1

Implied lineSYR -31.4

Volume952k

Open interest826k

Traded 24h857k

Kalshi's market prices SYR to win 99% — about SYR -31.4 vs the book's SYR -35.5. 4.1-pt gap — the market rates UNH higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 12:31 PMSYR 99%945k vol
Sep 5, 1:01 PMSYR 99%948k vol
Sep 5, 1:31 PMSYR 99%948k vol
Sep 5, 2:00 PMSYR 99%951k vol
Sep 5, 2:31 PMSYR 99%952k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.