the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Indiana. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (IU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -40.5 -110 | 57.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -40 -110 | 57.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -40.5 -113 | 56.5 -113 |
| betus | -40 -110 | 57 -110 |
| bovada | -40 +100 | 56.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -39.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -39.5 -118 | 56.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -40 -105 | 57.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | -40 -110 | 56.5 -110 |
Best IU number -39.5 · best UNT number +40.5. Best over 56.5 · best under 57.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:00 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from IU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyIU -40 (-40.5–-39.5)o/u 56.5 (56.5–57.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyIU -40 (-41–-39)o/u 56.5 (55.5–57)9 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyIU -40.5 (-41–-39.5)o/u 56 (55.5–57)9 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyIU -40.5 (-41–-39.5)o/u 56 (55.5–57)9 books
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyIU -40.5 (-41–-39.5)o/u 56 (55.5–57)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices IU to win 99% — about IU -31.4 vs the book's IU -40. 8.6-pt gap — the market rates UNT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 12:01 PMIU 99%5635k vol
- Sep 5, 12:31 PMIU 99%5713k vol
- Sep 5, 1:01 PMIU 99%5781k vol
- Sep 5, 1:31 PMIU 99%6617k vol
- Sep 5, 2:00 PMIU 99%6714k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM92°F (feels 99°)wind 7.4 g12precip 10%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM95°F (feels 102°)wind 4.1 g8precip 3%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM94°F (feels 100°)wind 8.4 g12precip 1%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.