the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes UConn. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (CONN) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -21 -120 | 52.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -21.5 -115 | 51.5 -125 |
| betrivers | -21 -112 | 52 -109 |
| bovada | -21 -115 | 52 -110 |
| draftkings | -21.5 -105 | 51.5 -118 |
| fanduel | -21.5 -104 | 52.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -21.5 -115 | 51.5 -125 |
| mybookieag | -21.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 |
Best CONN number -21 · best LAF number +21.5. Best over 51.5 · best under 52.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:00 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CONN's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyCONN -21.5 (-21.5–-21)o/u 52 (51.5–52.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyCONN -21 (-21.5–-19.5)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52.5)8 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyCONN -19.5 (-20–-19.5)o/u 51.57 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyCONN -19.5 (-20–-19.5)o/u 51.57 books
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyCONN -19.5o/u 51.56 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 14.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices CONN to win 99% — about CONN -31.4 vs the book's CONN -21.5. 9.9-pt gap — the market rates CONN higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 12:01 PMCONN 99%190k vol
- Sep 5, 12:31 PMCONN 99%191k vol
- Sep 5, 1:01 PMCONN 99%191k vol
- Sep 5, 1:31 PMCONN 99%198k vol
- Sep 5, 2:00 PMCONN 99%198k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM75°F (feels 77°)wind 9.8 g14precip 0%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM75°F (feels 76°)wind 9.2 g13precip 2%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM73°F (feels 74°)wind 10.5 g16precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.