the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes West Virginia. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (WVU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -21 -108 | 54.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -21 -109 | 54.5 -108 |
| betrivers | -21 -115 | 55 -108 |
| betus | -21 -115 | 54 -110 |
| bovada | -21 -110 | 54.5 -105 |
| draftkings | -21 -112 | 54.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 |
| lowvig | -21 -105 | 54.5 -106 |
| mybookieag | -21 -110 | 54.5 -110 |
Best WVU number -20.5 · best CCU number +21. Best over 54 · best under 55. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:00 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WVU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyWVU -21 (-21.5–-20.5)o/u 54.5 (54–55)9 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyWVU -21 (-21.5–-20.5)o/u 54.5 (53.5–55)9 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyWVU -21 (-21.5–-21)o/u 54.5 (54–55.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyWVU -21 (-21.5–-21)o/u 54.5 (54–55.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyWVU -21 (-21.5–-21)o/u 55 (54–55.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices WVU to win 99% — about WVU -31.4 vs the book's WVU -21. 10.4-pt gap — the market rates WVU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 12:31 PMWVU 99%405k vol
- Sep 5, 1:01 PMWVU 99%408k vol
- Sep 5, 1:31 PMWVU 99%430k vol
- Sep 5, 2:00 PMWVU 99%753k vol
- Sep 5, 2:31 PMWVU 99%771k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM77°F (feels 82°)wind 5.9 g13precip 15%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM73°F (feels 79°)wind 5.7 g7precip 12%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM72°F (feels 74°)wind 10.4 g17precip 12%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.