the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes James Madison. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (JMU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -6.5 -108 | 50.5 -115 |
| betonlineag | -6 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -6 -115 | 50.5 -109 |
| betus | -6 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
| bovada | -6.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -6 -112 | 50.5 -118 |
| fanduel | -6.5 -105 | 51.5 -104 |
| lowvig | -6 -106 | 50.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | -6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
Best JMU number -6 · best LIB number +6.5. Best over 50.5 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:00 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from JMU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyJMU -6.5 (-6.5–-6)o/u 50.5 (50.5–51.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyJMU -6.5 (-6.5–-6)o/u 50.5 (50.5–51.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyJMU -6 (-6.5–-6)o/u 50.5 (50–51.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyJMU -6 (-6.5–-6)o/u 50.5 (50–51.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyJMU -6 (-6.5–-6)o/u 50.5 (50–51.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices JMU to win 97% — about JMU -25.4 vs the book's JMU -6.5. 18.9-pt gap — the market rates JMU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 12:01 PMJMU 74%639k vol
- Sep 5, 12:31 PMJMU 91%786k vol
- Sep 5, 1:01 PMJMU 90%892k vol
- Sep 5, 1:31 PMJMU 93%996k vol
- Sep 5, 2:00 PMJMU 97%1149k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM79°F (feels 86°)wind 3.8 g16precip 33%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM84°F (feels 86°)wind 10.9 g17precip 11%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM84°Fwind 8.6 g21precip 14%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.