the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Bowling Green. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (BGSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -2.5 -112 | 49.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -1 -111 | 49 -125 |
| betrivers | -2 -112 | 48.5 -110 |
| bovada | -2.5 -115 | 49 -110 |
| draftkings | -1.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 |
| fanduel | -2.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -1 -111 | 49 -125 |
| mybookieag | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 |
Best BGSU number -1 · best TAR number +2.5. Best over 48.5 · best under 49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:00 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from BGSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyBGSU -2 (-2.5–-1)o/u 49 (48–49.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyBGSU -2 (-2.5–-1.5)o/u 48.5 (47.5–49)8 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyBGSU -2 (-2.5–-1.5)o/u 48.5 (47.5–48.5)7 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyBGSU -2 (-2.5–-1.5)o/u 48.5 (47.5–48.5)7 books
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyBGSU -2 (-2.5–-1.5)o/u 48.3 (47.5–48.5)6 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 14.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices BGSU to win 6% — about TAR -21 vs the book's BGSU -2. 23.0-pt gap — the market rates TAR higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 12:01 PMBGSU 26%588k vol
- Sep 5, 12:31 PMBGSU 22%740k vol
- Sep 5, 1:01 PMBGSU 23%867k vol
- Sep 5, 1:31 PMBGSU 17%1034k vol
- Sep 5, 2:00 PMBGSU 6%1417k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM75°F (feels 80°)wind 9.3 g13precip 8%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM74°F (feels 79°)wind 7.1 g10precip 11%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM83°F (feels 92°)wind 1.4 g7precip 11%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.