the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Army. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (ARMY) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -36.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -37 -125 | 50.5 -130 |
| betrivers | -37.5 -110 | 51 -113 |
| bovada | -37 -115 | 51.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -37.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 |
| fanduel | -36.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 |
| lowvig | -37 -125 | 50.5 -130 |
| mybookieag | -37.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
Best ARMY number -36.5 · best BRY number +37.5. Best over 50.5 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:00 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ARMY's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyARMY -37 (-37.5–-36.5)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyARMY -37.5 (-37.5–-36.5)o/u 50.5 (50.5–52.5)8 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyARMY -37.5 (-37.5–-36.5)o/u 50.57 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyARMY -37.5 (-37.5–-36.5)o/u 50.57 books
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyARMY -37.3 (-37.5–-36.5)o/u 50.56 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 14.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices ARMY to win 99% — about ARMY -31.4 vs the book's ARMY -37. 5.6-pt gap — the market rates BRY higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 12:01 PMARMY 99%2393k vol
- Sep 5, 12:31 PMARMY 99%2398k vol
- Sep 5, 1:01 PMARMY 99%2416k vol
- Sep 5, 1:31 PMARMY 99%2418k vol
- Sep 5, 2:00 PMARMY 99%2418k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM73°F (feels 75°)wind 8.1 g13precip 0%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM73°F (feels 74°)wind 8.2 g15precip 0%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM71°Fwind 9.7 g17precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.