the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Ohio State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (OSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -50 -112 | 55.5 -112 |
| betonlineag | -50 -110 | 55 -112 |
| betrivers | -50 -113 | 56 -110 |
| betus | -50 -110 | 55 -110 |
| bovada | -49.5 -110 | 55 -110 |
| draftkings | -50.5 -108 | 55.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -50.5 -114 | 55.5 -114 |
| lowvig | -50 -106 | 55 -110 |
| mybookieag | -50.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
Best OSU number -49.5 · best BALL number +50.5. Best over 55 · best under 56. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:31 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from OSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyOSU -50 (-51–-49.5)o/u 55.5 (55–56.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyOSU -50.5 (-51–-49.5)o/u 56.5 (56–56.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyOSU -50.5 (-51–-49.5)o/u 56.5 (56–56.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyOSU -50.5 (-51–-49.5)o/u 56.5 (56–56.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 5:01 PM · dailyOSU -50.5 (-51–-49.5)o/u 56.5 (56–56.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices OSU to win 99% — about OSU -31.4 vs the book's OSU -50. 18.6-pt gap — the market rates BALL higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 12:31 PMOSU 99%1035k vol
- Sep 5, 1:01 PMOSU 99%1042k vol
- Sep 5, 1:31 PMOSU 99%1043k vol
- Sep 5, 2:00 PMOSU 99%1044k vol
- Sep 5, 2:31 PMOSU 99%1044k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM79°F (feels 86°)wind 7.5 g15precip 9%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM81°F (feels 87°)wind 10.8 g20precip 11%
- Sep 4, 6:01 AM89°F (feels 98°)wind 6 g15precip 16%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.