the yahngorithm
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Miami (OH)
Mid-American
14
@
Pittsburgh
ACC
59
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · CW · Acrisure Stadium
Market spreadPITT -16.5
Market total47.5
Model spreadPITT -12.7
Edge-3.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel PITT -12.7
market PITT -16.5  ·  edge -3.8 (away)  ·  M-OH -4 vs PITT +6.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel PITT -12.7
market PITT -16.5  ·  edge -3.8 (away)  ·  M-OH -4.4 vs PITT +5.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Pittsburgh. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
M-OH-4—-0.4-4.4
PITT+6.2—-0.6+5.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

M-OH expected
18.9
1.6 pts/poss
PITT expected
31.6
2.6 pts/poss
Model total
50.5
market 47.5 · 24.2 poss, average pace
Edge
+3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

heavy rainBoth teams10.1 mm/hr
Steady, moderate-or-heavier rain at kickoff. Fumbles up, passing efficiency down — favors the run, the more physical team, and the UNDER. Explosive plays get dampened.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

M-OHPITT
ATS overall1-11-1
ATS at home1-01-1
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite1-01-1
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (PITT)Total
betmgm-16.5 -11247.5 -110
betonlineag-16.5 -11048 -107
betrivers-15.5 -11447.5 -112
betus-17 -11047.5 -110
bovada-16.5 -11548 -110
draftkings-16.5 -11547.5 -110
fanduel-16.5 -10847.5 -110
lowvig-17 +10448 -105
mybookieag-16.5 -11047.5 -110

Best PITT number -15.5 · best M-OH number +17. Best over 47.5 · best under 48. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 11:31 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from PITT's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 22.

Prediction market · Kalshi

M-OH1%
PITT99%▲ 11
Implied linePITT -31.4
Volume612k
Open interest403k
Traded 24h587k

Kalshi's market prices PITT to win 99% — about PITT -31.4 vs the book's PITT -16.5. 14.9-pt gap — the market rates PITT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.