the yahngorithm

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Duquesne

NEC · FCS

Air Force

Mountain West

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · MW+ · Falcon Stadium

Market spreadAF -31.5

Market total55.5

Model spreadAF -31.7

Edge+0.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel AF -31.7

market AF -31.5 · edge +0.2 · DUQ -32.4 vs AF -3.2 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel AF -31.8

market AF -31.5 · edge +0.3 · DUQ -32.5 vs AF -4.3 + 3.6 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Air Force. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

DUQ-32.4—-0.1-32.5

AF-3.2—-1.1-4.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.6 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

DUQ expected

7.2

0.7 pts/poss

AF expected

38.9

3.6 pts/poss

Model total

46.1

market 55.5 · 21.4 poss, average pace

Edge

-9.4

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

DUQAF

ATS overall0-11-1

ATS at home–1-1

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite–1-0

ATS as underdog0-10-1

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-1

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (AF)	Total
betmgm	-31.5 -108	55.5 -110
betonlineag	-31.5 -115	55.5 -115
betrivers	-31.5 -110	55 -112
bovada	-31 -115	55.5 -110
draftkings	-31.5 -110	55.5 -108
fanduel	-31.5 -105	55.5 -106
lowvig	-31.5 -115	55.5 -115
mybookieag	-31.5 -110	55.5 -110

Best AF number -31 · best DUQ number +31.5. Best over 55 · best under 55.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 12:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from AF's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyAF -31.5 (-31.5–-31)o/u 55.5 (55–55.5)8 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyAF -31.5 (-31.5–-31)o/u 55.5 (55–55.5)8 books
Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyAF -30.5 (-31.5–-28.5)o/u 56.5 (55–58)8 books
Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyAF -28.5 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 57.5 (56.5–58)7 books
Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyAF -28.5 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 57.5 (56.5–58)7 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 15.

Prediction market · Kalshi

DUQ1%

AF99%▲ 2

Implied lineAF -31.4

Volume200k

Open interest191k

Traded 24h168k

Kalshi's market prices AF to win 99% — about AF -31.4 vs the book's AF -31.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 12:31 PMAF 98%161k vol
Sep 5, 1:01 PMAF 99%192k vol
Sep 5, 1:31 PMAF 99%196k vol
Sep 5, 2:00 PMAF 99%199k vol
Sep 5, 2:31 PMAF 99%200k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 6:00 AM83°F (feels 77°)wind 10.9 g12precip 0%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM82°F (feels 75°)wind 13.5 g16precip 1%
Sep 4, 6:01 AM68°F (feels 66°)wind 5.2 g6precip 7%

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.