the yahngorithm

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Southeast Missouri State

OVC · FCS

Iowa State

Big 12

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Jack Trice Stadium

Market spreadISU -30

Market total52.5

Model spreadISU -34.7

Edge+4.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ISU -34.7

market ISU -30 · edge +4.7 (home) · SEMO -32.6 vs ISU -0.4 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ISU -34

market ISU -30 · edge +4 (home) · SEMO -32.7 vs ISU -1.4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 6 books. Positive edge = model likes Iowa State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

SEMO-32.6—-0.1-32.7

ISU-0.4—-1-1.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

SEMO expected

0.6 pts/poss

ISU expected

37.7

3.3 pts/poss

Model total

44.7

market 52.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace

Edge

-7.8

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SEMOISU

ATS overall1-01-1

ATS at home–0-1

ATS on the road1-01-0

ATS as favorite–0-1

ATS as underdog1-01-0

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under0O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (ISU)	Total
betmgm	-30 -108	53.5 -108
betrivers	-30 -115	52.5 -113
bovada	-30 -105	52.5 -115
draftkings	-29.5 -112	52.5 -112
fanduel	-30.5 -110	52.5 -114
mybookieag	-30.5 -110	–

Best ISU number -29.5 · best SEMO number +30.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 12:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ISU's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyISU -30 (-30.5–-29.5)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)6 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyISU -30.3 (-30.5–-29.5)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)6 books
Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyISU -30.5 (-30.5–-30)o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)6 books
Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyISU -30.5 (-30.5–-30)o/u 53.55 books
Sep 4, 8:00 PM · dailyISU -30.5 (-30.5–-30)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54)5 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 15.

Prediction market · Kalshi

SEMO1%

ISU99%▲ 3

Implied lineISU -31.4

Volume427k

Open interest372k

Traded 24h372k

Kalshi's market prices ISU to win 99% — about ISU -31.4 vs the book's ISU -30. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 1:31 PMISU 96%365k vol
Sep 5, 2:00 PMISU 99%419k vol
Sep 5, 2:31 PMISU 99%420k vol
Sep 5, 3:01 PMISU 99%424k vol
Sep 5, 3:30 PMISU 99%427k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 6:00 AM86°F (feels 99°)wind 3.4 g5precip 1%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM89°F (feels 102°)wind 2.9 g6precip 1%
Sep 4, 6:01 AM90°F (feels 100°)wind 4 g7precip 1%

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.