the yahngorithm
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Youngstown State
MVFC · FCS
13
@
Kentucky
SEC
45
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · SECN+ · Kroger Field
Market spreadUK -22.5
Market total61.5
Model spreadUK -18
Edge-4.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UK -18
market UK -22.5  ·  edge -4.5 (away)  ·  YSU -10.3 vs UK +5.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UK -18.4
market UK -22.5  ·  edge -4.1 (away)  ·  YSU -10.3 vs UK +5.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Kentucky. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
YSU-10.3—0-10.3
UK+5.2—+0.1+5.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

YSU expected
19.8
1.7 pts/poss
UK expected
37.8
3.2 pts/poss
Model total
57.5
market 61.5 · 23.3 poss, average pace
Edge
-4
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams91°F, feels 102°, 54% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
lookaheadKentuckythen Alabamahurts UK
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

YSUUK
ATS overall0-11-1
ATS at home–1-1
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-1
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (UK)Total
betmgm-22 -11061.5 -108
betonlineag-22 -12561.5 -110
betrivers-23 -11261 -115
bovada-23 -10561.5 -110
draftkings-22.5 -11061.5 -108
fanduel-21.5 -11061.5 -108
mybookieag-23 -11061.5 -110

Best UK number -21.5 · best YSU number +23. Best over 61 · best under 61.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 12:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UK's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 15.

Prediction market · Kalshi

YSU1%
UK99%▲ 6.9
Implied lineUK -31.4
Volume230k
Open interest207k
Traded 24h197k

Kalshi's market prices UK to win 99% — about UK -31.4 vs the book's UK -22.5. 8.9-pt gap — the market rates UK higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.