the yahngorithm
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Rhode Island
Coastal Athletic · FCS
14
@
Temple
American Athletic
38
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Lincoln Financial Field
Market spreadTEM -14.5
Market total51.5
Model spreadTEM -2.8
Edge-11.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TEM -2.8
market TEM -14.5  ·  edge -11.7 (away)  ·  URI -9.4 vs TEM -9.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TEM -3.3
market TEM -14.5  ·  edge -11.2 (away)  ·  URI -9.3 vs TEM -8.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Temple. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
URI-9.4—+0.1-9.3
TEM-9.1—+0.4-8.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

URI expected
23.8
2.2 pts/poss
TEM expected
26.6
2.4 pts/poss
Model total
50.5
market 51.5 · 22 poss, average pace
Edge
-1
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

URITEM
ATS overall0-12-0
ATS at home–2-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-11-0
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-1
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (TEM)Total
betmgm-14.5 -10551.5 -112
betonlineag-14.5 -11551.5 -110
betrivers-15 -11251 -113
bovada-14.5 -11051 -110
draftkings-14.5 -11051.5 -105
fanduel-14.5 -11051.5 -105
lowvig-14.5 -11551.5 -110
mybookieag-14.5 -11051 -110

Best TEM number -14.5 · best URI number +15. Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 1:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TEM's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 15.

Prediction market · Kalshi

URI1%
TEM99%▲ 14.7
Implied lineTEM -31.4
Volume660k
Open interest443k
Traded 24h643k

Kalshi's market prices TEM to win 99% — about TEM -31.4 vs the book's TEM -14.5. 16.9-pt gap — the market rates TEM higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.