the yahngorithm
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Tennessee State
OVC · FCS
3
@
3Georgia
SEC
63
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · SECN+ · Sanford Stadium
Market spreadUGA -49.3
Market total55.5
Model spreadUGA -71.3
Edge+22.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UGA -71.3
market UGA -49.3  ·  edge +22.1 (home)  ·  TNST -42.4 vs UGA +26.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UGA -71.9
market UGA -49.3  ·  edge +22.7 (home)  ·  TNST -42.4 vs UGA +26.6 + 3 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 6 books. Positive edge = model likes Georgia. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
TNST-42.4—0-42.4
UGA+26.4—+0.2+26.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

TNST expected
7
0.6 pts/poss
UGA expected
37.8
3.3 pts/poss
Model total
44.8
market 55.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace
Edge
-10.7
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams97°F, feels 109°, 47% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

TNSTUGA
ATS overall0-12-0
ATS at home–2-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite–2-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–2-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (UGA)Total
betmgm-48.5 -11255.5 -105
betrivers-48.5 -11356 -109
bovada-49 -11556 -110
draftkings-49.5 -10255.5 -112
fanduel-49.5 +10255.5 -106
mybookieag-49.5 -11055 -110

Best UGA number -48.5 · best TNST number +49.5. Best over 55 · best under 56. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UGA's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 16.

Prediction market · Kalshi

TNST1%
UGA99%
Implied lineUGA -31.4
Volume815k
Open interest694k
Traded 24h611k

Kalshi's market prices UGA to win 99% — about UGA -31.4 vs the book's UGA -49.3. 17.8-pt gap — the market rates TNST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.