the yahngorithm
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Tulane
American Athletic
3
@
Duke
ACC
17
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ACC Network · Wallace Wade Stadium
Market spreadDUKE -9
Market total51.5
Model spreadDUKE -12.4
Edge+3.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel DUKE -12.4
market DUKE -9  ·  edge +3.4 (home)  ·  TULN -4.3 vs DUKE +5.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel DUKE -12
market DUKE -9  ·  edge +3 (home)  ·  TULN -4.6 vs DUKE +4.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Duke. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
TULN-4.3—-0.3-4.6
DUKE+5.6—-0.8+4.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

TULN expected
20.9
1.8 pts/poss
DUKE expected
33.3
2.9 pts/poss
Model total
54.3
market 51.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace
Edge
+2.8
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamDuke1.5 pts in 2hhelps DUKE
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.
revengeDukelost by 7helps DUKE
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

TULNDUKE
ATS overall0-22-0
ATS at home0-11-0
ATS on the road0-11-0
ATS as favorite0-11-0
ATS as underdog0-11-0
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (DUKE)Total
betmgm-9.5 -11051.5 -108
betonlineag-9 -11252 -110
betrivers-9.5 -11251.5 -109
betus-9.5 -11052 -110
bovada-9.5 -10551.5 -115
draftkings-9.5 -11051.5 -110
fanduel-9.5 -11051.5 -110
lowvig-9 -10852 -108
mybookieag-9 -11051.5 -110

Best DUKE number -9 · best TULN number +9.5. Best over 51.5 · best under 52. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from DUKE's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 24.

Prediction market · Kalshi

TULN1%
DUKE99%▲ 25.5
Implied lineDUKE -31.4
Volume1411k
Open interest1036k
Traded 24h1350k

Kalshi's market prices DUKE to win 99% — about DUKE -31.4 vs the book's DUKE -9. 22.4-pt gap — the market rates DUKE higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKDUKE -9.5spread · sp_plus · logged at +2.9 edgeWIN
model 12.4logged 9.5close 7.5CLV -2
revenge

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.