the yahngorithm

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Fordham

Patriot · FCS

North Dakota State

Mountain West

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · CW · Fargodome · indoor

Market spreadNDSU -41.5

Market total54.5

Model spreadNDSU -47.2

Edge+5.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel NDSU -47.2

market NDSU -41.5 · edge +5.7 (home) · FOR -46.5 vs NDSU -1.8 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel NDSU -46.7

market NDSU -41.5 · edge +5.2 (home) · FOR -46.5 vs NDSU -2.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes North Dakota State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

FOR-46.5—0-46.5

NDSU-1.8—-0.8-2.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

FOR expected

0.6 pts/poss

NDSU expected

34.6

3.2 pts/poss

Model total

41.6

market 54.5 · 21.6 poss, average pace

Edge

-12.9

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

FORNDSU

ATS overall1-12-1 67%

ATS at home–1-1

ATS on the road1-11-0

ATS as favorite–2-1 67%

ATS as underdog1-1–

ATS after a win–1-1

ATS after a loss0-1–

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road0-21-0

Over / Under0O–2U1O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (NDSU)	Total
betmgm	-41.5 -110	54.5 -115
betonlineag	-41 -120	54 -113
betrivers	-41 -109	55 -113
bovada	-41.5 +100	54.5 -110
draftkings	-41.5 -105	54.5 -108
fanduel	-41.5 -110	54.5 -105
lowvig	-41 -120	54 -113
mybookieag	-41.5 -110	54.5 -110

Best NDSU number -41 · best FOR number +41.5. Best over 54 · best under 55. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from NDSU's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyNDSU -41.5 (-41.5–-41)o/u 54.5 (54–55)8 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyNDSU -41.5 (-41.5–-41)o/u 54.5 (54–55)8 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyNDSU -41.5 (-41.5–-41)o/u 54.5 (54–56.5)7 books
Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyNDSU -41.5o/u 55.5 (55.5–56.5)7 books
Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyNDSU -41.5 (-42.5–-40.5)o/u 56 (55.5–56.5)7 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 16.

Prediction market · Kalshi

FOR1%

NDSU99%▲ 1

Implied lineNDSU -31.4

Volume386k

Open interest364k

Traded 24h299k

Kalshi's market prices NDSU to win 99% — about NDSU -31.4 vs the book's NDSU -41.5. 10.1-pt gap — the market rates FOR higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 3:01 PMNDSU 99%272k vol
Sep 5, 3:30 PMNDSU 99%371k vol
Sep 5, 4:01 PMNDSU 99%384k vol
Sep 5, 4:30 PMNDSU 99%386k vol
Sep 5, 5:01 PMNDSU 99%386k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.