the yahngorithm

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Boston College

ACC

Cincinnati

Big 12

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · FOX · Nippert Stadium

Market spreadCIN -7

Market total51.5

Model spreadCIN -8

Edge+1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel CIN -8

market CIN -7 · edge +1 · BC -2.5 vs CIN +3 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel CIN -7.7

market CIN -7 · edge +0.7 · BC -3 vs CIN +2.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Cincinnati. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

BC-2.5—-0.5-3

CIN+3—-0.9+2.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

BC expected

22.4

2 pts/poss

CIN expected

30.4

2.7 pts/poss

Model total

52.7

market 51.5 · 22.8 poss, average pace

Edge

+1.2

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

BCCIN

ATS overall1-12-0

ATS at home1-02-0

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite1-02-0

ATS as underdog0-1–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home1-02-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under0O–2U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (CIN)	Total
betmgm	-7 -112	51.5 -105
betonlineag	-7 -108	51.5 -108
betrivers	-7 -114	51.5 -109
betus	-7 -110	51 -110
bovada	-7 -110	51 -110
draftkings	-7 -112	51.5 -102
fanduel	-7.5 -105	51.5 -110
lowvig	-7 -104	51.5 -102
mybookieag	-7 -110	51 -110

Best CIN number -7 · best BC number +7.5. Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CIN's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyCIN -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 51.5 (51–51.5)9 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyCIN -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 51.5 (51–51.5)9 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyCIN -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 51 (50–51.5)9 books
Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyCIN -7.5 (-7.5–-7)o/u 50 (49–51)9 books
Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyCIN -7.5o/u 50 (49–50.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 24.

Prediction market · Kalshi

BC1%

CIN99%▲ 26.5

Implied lineCIN -31.4

Volume1157k

Open interest899k

Traded 24h1128k

Kalshi's market prices CIN to win 99% — about CIN -31.4 vs the book's CIN -7. 24.4-pt gap — the market rates CIN higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 4:01 PMCIN 81%779k vol
Sep 5, 4:30 PMCIN 92%900k vol
Sep 5, 5:01 PMCIN 99%1010k vol
Sep 5, 5:30 PMCIN 99%1138k vol
Sep 5, 6:00 PMCIN 99%1157k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 4:01 PM91°F (feels 98°)wind 6.4 g9precip 2%
Sep 5, 6:00 AM93°F (feels 98°)wind 7.6 g13precip 5%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM95°F (feels 100°)wind 5.6 g12precip 19%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.