the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Navy. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (NAVY) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -31.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 |
| betonlineag | -31.5 -125 | 49.5 -120 |
| betrivers | -30.5 -113 | 51 -110 |
| bovada | -31 -115 | 51 -115 |
| draftkings | -31.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -31.5 -104 | 51.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -31.5 -125 | 49.5 -120 |
| mybookieag | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
Best NAVY number -30.5 · best TOW number +31.5. Best over 49.5 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from NAVY's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyNAVY -31.5 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 50.5 (49.5–51.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyNAVY -31.3 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 50.5 (49.5–51)8 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyNAVY -31.5 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 50.5 (49–51)8 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyNAVY -30.5 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 50.5 (49–51)7 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyNAVY -30.5 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 50.5 (49–51)7 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 16.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices NAVY to win 99% — about NAVY -31.4 vs the book's NAVY -31.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 3:30 PMNAVY 99%153k vol
- Sep 5, 4:01 PMNAVY 99%307k vol
- Sep 5, 4:30 PMNAVY 99%318k vol
- Sep 5, 5:01 PMNAVY 99%322k vol
- Sep 5, 5:30 PMNAVY 99%322k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM81°F (feels 83°)wind 6.4 g12precip 1%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM83°F (feels 85°)wind 7 g9precip 1%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM83°Fwind 8.6 g11precip 4%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.