the yahngorithm
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The Citadel
Southern · FCS
43
@
Charlotte
American Athletic
41
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Jerry Richardson Stadium
Market spreadCLT -20.5
Market total49
Model spreadCLT -30.8
Edge+10.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel CLT -30.8
market CLT -20.5  ·  edge +10.3 (home)  ·  CIT -52.4 vs CLT -24.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel CLT -32.1
market CLT -20.5  ·  edge +11.6 (home)  ·  CIT -52.4 vs CLT -23.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Charlotte. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
CIT-52.4—0-52.4
CLT-24.1—+1-23.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CIT expected
10
0.8 pts/poss
CLT expected
40.8
3.5 pts/poss
Model total
50.8
market 49 · 23.6 poss, average pace
Edge
+1.8
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

windBoth teams22 mph, gust 32
Sustained wind 18+ mph or gusts 30+. The single biggest weather factor: passing and especially kicking suffer. Leans UNDER; a shootout script is unlikely. Affects both teams.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CITCLT
ATS overall1-01-1
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road1-01-0
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog1-01-0
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home–0-1
W–L on the road1-00-1
Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (CLT)Total
betmgm-20 -11048.5 -112
betonlineag-19.5 -12049 -120
betrivers-20.5 -11248.5 -112
bovada-20.5 -11549 -110
draftkings-20.5 -10849.5 -108
fanduel-20.5 -10648.5 -106
lowvig-19.5 -12049 -120
mybookieag-20.5 -11049 -110

Best CLT number -19.5 · best CIT number +20.5. Best over 48.5 · best under 49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CLT's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 16.

Prediction market · Kalshi

CIT24%
CLT76%▼ 14
Implied lineCLT -9.6
Volume2509k
Open interest1254k
Traded 24h2212k

Kalshi's market prices CLT to win 76% — about CLT -9.6 vs the book's CLT -20.5. 10.9-pt gap — the market rates CIT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.