the yahngorithm

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Furman

Southern · FCS

20Tennessee

SEC

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · SECN+ · Neyland Stadium

Market spreadTENN -49.3

Market total66.5

Model spreadTENN -49.9

Edge+0.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TENN -49.9

market TENN -49.3 · edge +0.7 · FUR -30.1 vs TENN +17.3 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TENN -49.9

market TENN -49.3 · edge +0.6 · FUR -30.1 vs TENN +16.9 + 3 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Tennessee. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

FUR-30.1——-30.1

TENN+17.3—-0.4+16.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

FUR expected

0.6 pts/poss

TENN expected

50.8

4.4 pts/poss

Model total

57.8

market 66.5 · 23.2 poss, average pace

Edge

-8.7

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

FURTENN

ATS overall1-01-1

ATS at home–0-1

ATS on the road1-01-0

ATS as favorite–1-1

ATS as underdog1-0–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-11-0

Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (TENN)	Total
betmgm	-49.5 -108	66.5 -110
betonlineag	-49.5 -125	66.5 -115
betrivers	-49 -108	66.5 -113
bovada	-49 -105	66.5 -115
draftkings	-49.5 -105	66.5 -110
fanduel	-49.5 -110	66.5 -112
lowvig	-49.5 -125	66.5 -115
mybookieag	-49.5 -110	66.5 -110

Best TENN number -49 · best FUR number +49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TENN's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyTENN -49.3 (-49.5–-48.5)o/u 66.58 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyTENN -48.5 (-49–-48.5)o/u 66.5 (66.5–67)8 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyTENN -48.5 (-49.5–-48.5)o/u 66.5 (66.5–67)8 books
Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyTENN -48.5 (-49–-48)o/u 66.5 (66.5–67.5)8 books
Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyTENN -48.5 (-48.5–-47.5)o/u 66.5 (66.5–67)7 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 16.

Prediction market · Kalshi

FUR1%

TENN99%

Implied lineTENN -31.4

Volume652k

Open interest644k

Traded 24h508k

Kalshi's market prices TENN to win 99% — about TENN -31.4 vs the book's TENN -49.3. 17.8-pt gap — the market rates FUR higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 3:30 PMTENN 99%643k vol
Sep 5, 4:01 PMTENN 99%648k vol
Sep 5, 4:30 PMTENN 99%648k vol
Sep 5, 5:01 PMTENN 99%649k vol
Sep 5, 5:30 PMTENN 99%652k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 4:01 PM83°F (feels 99°)wind 0.7 g5precip 18%
Sep 5, 6:00 AM96°F (feels 102°)wind 3.9 g8precip 3%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM99°F (feels 105°)wind 3.5 g9precip 7%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.