the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Texas. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (TEX) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -29 -110 | 61.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -29.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -29 -114 | 60 -114 |
| betus | -29.5 -110 | 61 -110 |
| bovada | -29.5 -115 | 61 -115 |
| draftkings | -29.5 -112 | 60.5 -115 |
| fanduel | -29.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -29.5 -101 | 61.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | -29.5 -110 | 61 -110 |
Best TEX number -29 · best TXST number +29.5. Best over 60 · best under 61.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TEX's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyTEX -29.5 (-30–-29)o/u 61 (60–61.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyTEX -29.5 (-29.5–-29)o/u 60 (59.5–60.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyTEX -29.5o/u 60 (59.5–60.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyTEX -29.5o/u 59.5 (59.5–61.5)9 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyTEX -29.5 (-29.5–-29)o/u 59.5 (59.5–60)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 24.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices TEX to win 99% — about TEX -31.4 vs the book's TEX -29.5. 1.9-pt gap — the market rates TEX higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 3:30 PMTEX 99%2596k vol
- Sep 5, 4:01 PMTEX 99%2685k vol
- Sep 5, 4:30 PMTEX 99%2721k vol
- Sep 5, 5:01 PMTEX 99%2741k vol
- Sep 5, 5:30 PMTEX 99%2752k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM96°F (feels 106°)wind 3.5 g5precip 0%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM96°F (feels 105°)wind 6 g7precip 3%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM97°F (feels 104°)wind 7.1 g8precip 2%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.