the yahngorithm

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Baylor

Big 12

Auburn

SEC

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ABC · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · neutral site · indoor

Market spreadAUB -6.5

Market total58.5

Model spreadAUB -7.7

Edge+1.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel AUB -7.7

market AUB -6.5 · edge +1.2 · BAY +3.8 vs AUB +11.5 (neutral)

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel AUB -6.9

market AUB -6.5 · edge +0.4 · BAY +4.1 vs AUB +11 + 0 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Auburn. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

BAY+3.8—+0.3+4.1

AUB+11.5—-0.5+11

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 0 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

BAY expected

22.8

2 pts/poss

AUB expected

30.5

2.6 pts/poss

Model total

53.4

market 58.5 · 23.3 poss, average pace

Edge

-5.1

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

BAYAUB

ATS overall2-01-1

ATS at home1-01-1

ATS on the road1-0–

ATS as favorite1-01-1

ATS as underdog1-0–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home1-02-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under0O–2U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (AUB)	Total
betmgm	-6.5 -108	58.5 -108
betonlineag	-6.5 -118	58.5 -110
betrivers	-7 -110	59 -109
betus	-6.5 -120	58.5 -110
bovada	-6.5 -120	58 -110
draftkings	-6.5 -115	58.5 -105
fanduel	-6.5 -122	58.5 -110
lowvig	-6.5 -113	58.5 -108
mybookieag	-7 +100	58.5 -110

Best AUB number -6.5 · best BAY number +7. Best over 58 · best under 59. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from AUB's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyAUB -6.5 (-7–-6.5)o/u 58.5 (57.5–59)9 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyAUB -6.8 (-7.5–-6.5)o/u 58.5 (57.5–59)9 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyAUB -7.5 (-7.5–-7)o/u 58.5 (57.5–59.5)9 books
Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyAUB -7.5 (-7.5–-7)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)9 books
Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyAUB -7.5 (-7.5–-7)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 24.

Prediction market · Kalshi

BAY11%

AUB89%▲ 16.6

Implied lineAUB -16.5

Volume8691k

Open interest4788k

Traded 24h7869k

Kalshi's market prices AUB to win 89% — about AUB -16.5 vs the book's AUB -6.5. 10.0-pt gap — the market rates AUB higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 4:01 PMAUB 77%4143k vol
Sep 5, 4:30 PMAUB 68%4805k vol
Sep 5, 5:01 PMAUB 76%5945k vol
Sep 5, 5:30 PMAUB 63%6995k vol
Sep 5, 6:00 PMAUB 89%8691k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.