the yahngorithm

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Boise State

Pac-12

2Oregon

Big Ten

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · CBS · Autzen Stadium

Market spreadORE -25

Market total52.5

Model spreadORE -26.6

Edge+1.6

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ORE -26.6

market ORE -25 · edge +1.6 · BOIS +5.1 vs ORE +29.2 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ORE -27.1

market ORE -25 · edge +2.1 · BOIS +4.8 vs ORE +28.8 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Oregon. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

BOIS+5.1—-0.3+4.8

ORE+29.2—-0.4+28.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

BOIS expected

13.5

1.1 pts/poss

ORE expected

40.1

3.4 pts/poss

Model total

53.5

market 52.5 · 23.4 poss, average pace

Edge

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

BOISORE

ATS overall2-00-2

ATS at home1-00-1

ATS on the road1-00-1

ATS as favorite1-00-2

ATS as underdog1-0–

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home1-01-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under2O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (ORE)	Total
betmgm	-25 -112	53.5 -108
betonlineag	-25 -113	53 -115
betrivers	-25.5 -113	52 -113
betus	-25 -110	53 -110
bovada	-25.5 -110	53 -105
draftkings	-24.5 -112	53.5 -108
fanduel	-25.5 -110	52.5 -112
lowvig	-25 -109	53 -114
mybookieag	-25.5 -110	53 -110

Best ORE number -24.5 · best BOIS number +25.5. Best over 52 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ORE's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyORE -25 (-25.5–-24.5)o/u 52.5 (51.5–53.5)9 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyORE -24.5 (-25.5–-24.5)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52)9 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyORE -24.5 (-25–-24.5)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52)9 books
Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyORE -24.5 (-25–-24.5)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52)9 books
Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyORE -24.5 (-25–-24.5)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 24.

Prediction market · Kalshi

BOIS3%

ORE97%▲ 2.9

Implied lineORE -25.3

Volume22882k

Open interest14317k

Traded 24h20817k

Kalshi's market prices ORE to win 97% — about ORE -25.3 vs the book's ORE -25. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 4:01 PMORE 62%11027k vol
Sep 5, 4:30 PMORE 82%13615k vol
Sep 5, 5:01 PMORE 93%16196k vol
Sep 5, 5:30 PMORE 71%18686k vol
Sep 5, 6:00 PMORE 97%22882k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 4:01 PM64°F (feels 67°)wind 1.7 g3precip 0%
Sep 5, 6:00 AM64°F (feels 66°)wind 3.1 g4precip 1%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM63°F (feels 64°)wind 4.9 g6precip 2%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.