the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes UTSA. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (UTSA) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -28 -112 | 59.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -27.5 -120 | 59.5 -115 |
| betrivers | -28.5 -113 | 58.5 -114 |
| bovada | -28.5 +100 | 59.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -28.5 -102 | 59.5 -108 |
| fanduel | -28.5 -106 | 59.5 -112 |
| lowvig | -27.5 -120 | 59.5 -115 |
| mybookieag | -28.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 |
Best UTSA number -27.5 · best RGV number +28.5. Best over 58.5 · best under 59.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UTSA's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyUTSA -28.5 (-28.5–-27)o/u 59.5 (58.5–60.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyUTSA -28.5 (-28.5–-27)o/u 59.5 (58.5–60.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyUTSA -28.5 (-28.5–-27)o/u 59.5 (58.5–59.5)7 books
- Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyUTSA -28.5 (-28.5–-27.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–59.5)7 books
- Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyUTSA -28.5 (-29.5–-27.5)o/u 59.56 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 16.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices UTSA to win 99% — about UTSA -31.4 vs the book's UTSA -28.5. 2.9-pt gap — the market rates UTSA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PMUTSA 99%1166k vol
- Sep 5, 4:30 PMUTSA 99%1174k vol
- Sep 5, 5:01 PMUTSA 99%1178k vol
- Sep 5, 5:30 PMUTSA 99%1180k vol
- Sep 5, 6:00 PMUTSA 99%1181k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.