the yahngorithm

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Maine

Coastal Athletic · FCS

App State

Sun Belt

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Kidd Brewer Stadium

Market spreadAPP -21

Market total53.5

Model spreadAPP -21.4

Edge+0.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel APP -21.4

market APP -21 · edge +0.4 · ME -31.6 vs APP -12.7 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel APP -22

market APP -21 · edge +1 · ME -31.7 vs APP -12.4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes App State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

ME-31.6—-0.1-31.7

APP-12.7—+0.3-12.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ME expected

1.2 pts/poss

APP expected

35.4

3 pts/poss

Model total

49.4

market 53.5 · 23.4 poss, average pace

Edge

-4.1

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MEAPP

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road0-11-0

ATS as favorite–1-0

ATS as underdog0-11-0

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-11-0

Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (APP)	Total
betmgm	-21 -108	53.5 -110
betonlineag	-21 -115	53.5 -115
betrivers	-21 -114	53.5 -110
bovada	-21 -105	54 -105
draftkings	-21 -108	53.5 -115
fanduel	-20.5 -115	53.5 -110
lowvig	-21 -115	53.5 -115
mybookieag	-21 -110	53.5 -110

Best APP number -20.5 · best ME number +21. Best over 53.5 · best under 54. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from APP's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyAPP -21 (-21–-20.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54)8 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyAPP -20.5 (-21–-20.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54)8 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyAPP -20.8 (-21.5–-19)o/u 53.5 (52.5–54)8 books
Sep 5, 8:01 AM · dailyAPP -19.5 (-20–-19)o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)7 books
Sep 4, 11:00 PM · dailyAPP -19.5 (-19.5–-18.5)o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)7 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 16.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 4:01 PM72°F (feels 74°)wind 11 g18precip 27%
Sep 5, 6:00 AM84°F (feels 90°)wind 6.2 g10precip 12%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM85°F (feels 88°)wind 9.4 g16precip 5%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.